chore: sync submodule state (parent ref update)

Made-with: Cursor

docs/OPERATIONS_RUNBOOK.md

@@ -102,6 +102,48 @@ cast call $USDW_ADDRESS "totalSupply()" --rpc-url $RPC_URL
 
 ---
 
+### 1.4 Reserve and Stabilization Policies (VAULT_SYSTEM_MASTER_TECHNICAL_PLAN)
+
+The following formulas and checklists are from [VAULT_SYSTEM_MASTER_TECHNICAL_PLAN](../../../docs/VAULT_SYSTEM_MASTER_TECHNICAL_PLAN.md). Use them for sizing and operational verification.
+
+#### Reserve Sizing Model
+
+- **Variables:** PeakMinuteOutflow = P, StabilizationWindow = T (minutes).
+- **Required reserve:** Reserve ≥ P × T.
+- **Recommended safety factor:** 3–5× peak minute outflow.
+- **Example:** P = 10,000, T = 5 min → Reserve ≥ 50,000; with 3× safety → 150,000.
+
+#### Cantilever Stabilization Model
+
+- **Condition:** s × f ≥ Δ (s = micro trade size, f = micro trade frequency, Δ = net imbalance per minute).
+- **Dynamic rule:** If deviation > θ, set s = k × deviation (eliminates fixed frequency dependency).
+- **Use:** Size and frequency of stabilization trades so throughput offsets macro flow.
+
+#### Bridge Liquidity Buffer
+
+- **Rule:** BridgeReserve ≥ PeakBridgeOutflow × Latency (where Latency = bridge settlement time).
+- **Use:** Ensure cross-chain bridge buffers satisfy this so outflows do not exhaust reserves during settlement.
+
+#### Cross-chain parity and bridge buffer
+
+- **Objective:** Maintain |Price138 − Price651940| < ArbitrageThreshold (see [CROSS_CHAIN_ARBITRAGE_DESIGN](../../../docs/07-ccip/CROSS_CHAIN_ARBITRAGE_DESIGN.md)). Cross-chain private arbitrage bots execute when deviation exceeds threshold; bridge reserve must be sized so outflows do not exhaust reserves during settlement.
+- **Bridge buffer formula:** BridgeReserve ≥ PeakBridgeOutflow × Latency.
+  - **PeakBridgeOutflow:** Measure from bridge events (e.g. lock/release or TransferInitiated volume) over a rolling window (e.g. peak hourly or daily outflow in USD or token units).
+  - **Latency:** Bridge settlement time (e.g. typical time from lock on source chain to release on destination, in minutes or blocks). Use historical median or P95.
+- **Sizing steps:** (1) Query bridge contract events for initiated/released amounts per time window; (2) compute peak outflow; (3) measure typical settlement latency; (4) set minimum reserve = Peak × Latency; (5) add safety factor (e.g. 1.5–2×) and document in runbook.
+- **Alert when reserve below:** If BridgeReserve < PeakBridgeOutflow × Latency (or below safety threshold), trigger **Warning** alert. If reserve is falling and may breach within one settlement window, escalate to **Critical**. Integrate with existing monitoring (e.g. Prometheus + PagerDuty when monitoring stack is deployed). See [VAULT_SYSTEM_MASTER_TECHNICAL_PLAN](../../../docs/VAULT_SYSTEM_MASTER_TECHNICAL_PLAN.md) §9.
+
+#### Flash Loan Containment Checklist
+
+- Use **TWAP deviation detection** (not single-block price).
+- **Ignore single-block imbalance** for stabilizer triggers.
+- Require **sustained deviation for N blocks** before rebalancing.
+- **Cap per-block stabilization volume** to limit flash-driven execution.
+- **Target:** Flash drain recovery <3 blocks (per Master Plan §16).
+- **On-chain:** The [Stabilizer](../../contracts/bridge/trustless/integration/Stabilizer.sol) (Phase 3 + 6) implements block delay, sustained-deviation buffer, per-block volume cap, and slippage/gas checks; deploy and configure per [CONTRACT_DEPLOYMENT_RUNBOOK](../../../docs/03-deployment/CONTRACT_DEPLOYMENT_RUNBOOK.md) § Stabilizer.
+
+---
+
 ## 2. Weekly Operations
 
 ### 2.1 Reserve Attestation