# Bond Risk & Oversight

## Overview

Bond risk and oversight systems provide comprehensive risk monitoring and regulatory compliance for GRU bond markets through SARE (Sovereign AI Risk Engine) and ARI (Autonomous Regulatory Intelligence) integration.

## SARE (Sovereign AI Risk Engine) Integration

### Bond-Specific Risk Monitoring

#### Sovereign Default Exposure
- Sovereign default probability
- Default correlation analysis
- Sovereign risk scoring
- Default scenario modeling

#### FX-Linked Bond Risk
- FX volatility impact
- Currency risk assessment
- FX-linked bond exposure
- Currency correlation analysis

#### Metal-Index Dependency
- Commodity price risk
- Index volatility tracking
- Metal reserve adequacy
- Price shock scenarios

### SARE Risk Metrics

#### Sovereign Risk Score
- SRI integration
- Bond-specific risk adjustment
- Sovereign credit assessment
- Risk tier classification

#### Market Risk Metrics
- Price volatility
- Liquidity risk
- Correlation risk
- Concentration risk

#### Credit Risk Metrics
- Default probability
- Loss given default
- Exposure at default
- Credit spread analysis

## ARI (Autonomous Regulatory Intelligence)

### Bond Compliance Enforcement

#### Regulatory Compliance
- Rule compliance checking
- Regulatory requirement verification
- Compliance reporting
- Violation detection

#### Synthetic Market Integrity
- Market manipulation detection
- Price manipulation monitoring
- Trading pattern analysis
- Anomaly detection

### ARI Monitoring

#### Real-Time Monitoring
- Continuous compliance checking
- Real-time risk assessment
- Automated alerts
- Immediate intervention

#### Predictive Analytics
- Risk prediction
- Compliance forecasting
- Anomaly prediction
- Trend analysis

## Risk Assessment Framework

### Risk Categories

#### Credit Risk
- Sovereign credit risk
- Counterparty credit risk
- Default risk
- Downgrade risk

#### Market Risk
- Price risk
- Interest rate risk
- FX risk
- Commodity risk

#### Liquidity Risk
- Market liquidity risk
- Funding liquidity risk
- Settlement liquidity risk
- Asset liquidity risk

#### Operational Risk
- Settlement risk
- Technology risk
- Model risk
- Regulatory risk

### Risk Scoring

#### Composite Risk Score
```
Risk_Score = f(Credit_Risk, Market_Risk, Liquidity_Risk, Operational_Risk)
```

#### Risk Tier Classification
- Low risk (0-25)
- Medium risk (26-50)
- High risk (51-75)
- Critical risk (76-100)

## Stress Testing

### Stress Test Scenarios

#### Sovereign Default Scenarios
- Single sovereign default
- Multiple sovereign defaults
- Regional default cascade
- Global default scenario

#### Market Shock Scenarios
- Price crash scenarios
- Liquidity crisis
- FX collapse
- Commodity price shock

#### Operational Scenarios
- Settlement failure
- Technology outage
- Model failure
- Regulatory change

### Stress Test Execution
- Scenario generation
- Impact assessment
- Recovery analysis
- Reporting

## Compliance Monitoring

### Regulatory Compliance

#### DBIS Regulations
- Bond market regulations
- Issuance requirements
- Trading rules
- Settlement standards

#### Supranational Compliance
- Regional regulations
- Cross-border rules
- Supranational standards
- Coordinated oversight

### Compliance Reporting
- Regulatory reports
- Risk reports
- Compliance dashboards
- Audit trails

## Automated Enforcement

### Risk-Based Actions

#### Automatic Restrictions
- Trading restrictions
- Position limits
- Margin requirements
- Settlement delays

#### Intervention Triggers
- Risk threshold breaches
- Compliance violations
- Anomaly detection
- Market manipulation

### Enforcement Actions
- Warning notifications
- Trading suspensions
- Position liquidation
- Regulatory reporting

## Integration Points

### SARE Integration
- Real-time risk monitoring
- Risk score calculation
- Risk alert generation
- Risk reporting

### ARI Integration
- Compliance checking
- Regulatory monitoring
- Automated enforcement
- Compliance reporting

### External Systems
- Market data feeds
- Regulatory systems
- Reporting platforms
- Audit systems

